A disasterous protest vote

Is this the end for the moderate viewpoint in Northern Ireland? It would appear to be so. The UUP's vote has collapsed. They now have only one seat left in Westminster. The SDLP have taken a hit from Sinn Fein. Now the two extreme parties from both communities are in the ascendency.

Was this an endorsement of the DUP and Sinn Fein's position, however, or was it a protest vote in either community? In other words, did people vote for the DUP as the anti-Sinn Fein party or did they genuinely believe in what the DUP are doing and vice-versa? I believe it was a protest vote.

The UUP were always the strongest party of the Union in the North. They were also relative moderates compared to Ian Paisley and the Democratic Unionist Party as were the SDLP in the Nationalist community. Ian Paisley has been the face of extreme Unionism and leader of the DUP for thirty years. Why should he suddenly become so popular now? It is not what he has done recently- he has not changed in all his time in politics. What has changed is the Good Friday agreement and the "appeasement" of Sinn Fein in Loyalist minds. Paisley's message of the Catholic threat to the Ulster Protestant way of life now rings true where in the past he has been easy to dismiss as the unacceptable face of Loyalism and a crack on the extreme right of reason never mind Unionism. For many Protestants in the North, the IRA and Sinn Fein have got all the gains out of Good Friday, whether its prisoner early release (which Loyalists have also been granted) or delays in decommisioning (all the protests have been from the Unionist side about IRA decommisioning; there has been little or no mention about Loyalist extremists handing in their weapons). This has emboldened the Reverand to push for more. The demand that the IRA provide a photo of their decommisioning- something which Paisley must have known the IRA would never agree to- was as much for political gain as it was for proving that decommisioning was taking place.

Unfortunately for Northern Ireland, his strategy seems to have worked. By playing on the supposed threat on the Protestant way of life from Nationalists his party has become the dominant representative of Protestants in the province. His message has also become a self-fulfilling prophecy. By raising passions as he has, the Republican community has looked at the two parties on offer and, even after the Northern Bank Raid and the Robert MacCartney controversy has chosen the more extreme of the two; the "best" defender of Republicanism, Sinn Fein.

Like in Hamlet, it has been appearance rather than reality which has mattered in this election and now things look grim for the North. A few days ago I heard a commentator say that Election 2005 in the North was about finding a negotiating team for both communities. I hope they do end up around a table but I highly doubt it. It could be a long time before we see devolved government in Stormont again.