The Squad has been picked, now for the Test team

Rugby Union: The first shock came when the back rows were named. No to Ryan Jones and Tom Croft, but yes to Alan Quinlan and Andy Powell. In the second row, yes to Simon Shaw but no to Steve Borthwick. And perhaps most surprising of all, yes to Keith Earls and Ugo Monye but no Mark Cueto and Delon Armitage. Even the choosing of Paul O’Connell over his international captain Brian O’Driscoll to lead the team, although widely expected, carries an element of risk. The British and Irish Lions squad that Ian McGeechan selected this weekend (with a little input from Warren Gatland, Shaun Edwards and Rob Howley) has brought several surprises and, perhaps, the possibility of recriminations if the tour does not go as planned. The main talking points right now among the fans are obviously who didn’t make the touring party. In a six weeks time though the question will no longer be who should have been picked for the tour but rather who should be picked for the first test on June 20^th. To that end, here is a best guess at what the management team may do if the first test was this Saturday. As happens on every tour though, somebody will emerge from relative obscurity to take a test place. Few would have expected Jeremy Davidson to make the impact he did in 1997 or Ryan Jones in 2005. So please, don’t read this and then head straight for the nearest bookmakers to put the mortgage on this XV lining out at Durban two months from now.

In the back three, Tommy Bowe and Luke FitzGerald go into the tour as favourites for the wing spots. Both had solid Six Nations but both may have to show excellent for form to cement places in a position that is notable as much for those omitted as those picked. Mark Cueto had a fine Six Nations and has returned to the form he showed when he made it into the England team in the first place a few years ago. He will be disappointed that he hasn’t made the plane, as will be Delon Armitage. Armitage arguably over took Rob Kearney for the second full back spot towards the end of the tournament and had shown a willingness to attack that the Irishman seems to have forgotten. His scything runs against the French stand out and he has continued his form with London Irish. A place should have been found for him. In fairness though, Leigh Halfpenny has electric pace along with the strength to match while Ugo Monye, a few years later than advertised, has finally turned in to the international winger he was supposed to be when he was 20. Lee Byrne is unquestionably the man in possession of the 15 shirt right now and don’t be surprised if Halfpenny and Shane Williams (if he can find his form) make it an all Welsh test back three.

The gamble taken on Keith Earls may be where this tour lives or dies. Keith Earls is a young tyro who played for Ireland in the autumn but didn’t feature in the Six Nations. He has been in fine form for Munster and undoubtedly has a bright future. The selection team obviously see him as a Will Greenwood type selection in 1997. There is a lingering fear though that this tour may have come a year too early for him. Gordon D’Arcy completed his comeback from along term injury this spring and showed he was back in form. Considering he has kept Earls out of the Ireland team his non-selection has to be a surprise. If Earls doesn’t make it and inside centre becomes a question mark position then the second guessing will start quickly. There is a danger Earls may end up like Matthew Tait out of his depth so early in his career. In any case, with O’Driscoll guaranteed his place barring some apocalyptic event, it becomes four players looking for one position. Tom Shanklin will probably shade it as of right now but the fast tracks of the High Veld will suit Riki Flutey and his distribution skills may be key to running the Lions backline.

As of today, the half backs seem relatively straightforward. The faster hands and longer kicking range of Ronan O’Gara will see him picked ahead of Stephen Jones at ten but he needs to pick up his form. It has been sheer grit that has got him though this season. Both these players can count themselves fortunate that neither Danny Cipriani nor James Hook were able to make a late charge for the plane. Dwayne Peel’s injury problems and the inability of Chris Cusiter to find favour with Frank Hadden this year mean neither will be in South Africa and the Lions will be weaker for it. Mike Phillips is big and strong but his pass it too slow for international rugby while Tomás O’Leary has also struggled with his distribution. Once Harry Ellis regained his England place at the expense of the unfortunate Danny Care the Leicester scrum half was outstanding. He scored tries, was a live wire around the park and bossed his pack well. He is the unquestioned starter.

The pack is where things start to get a little more complicated. The Lions seem to want to shift the Springboks around the park and tire them out (hence the selection of someone like Earls) but they also need a pack that will not be intimidated and can ultimately dominate the South African forwards (hence the selection of Alan Quinlan). Let’s start at the front.

Euan Murray has emerged as the best tight head prop in the Home Nations, likewise Gethin Jenkins is seen as the top loose head in Europe. If they were on form both Phil Vickery and Andrew Sheridan would be worth their place but neither player has shown their best in at least a year. Vickery especially seems to be playing from memory at the moment and it may have been a lack of alternatives that has seen him travel. None of the three hookers picked have had outstanding seasons. Matthew Rees was taken apart at the lineout by the Irish jumpers while both Jerry Flannery and Lee Mears have been considered too small at times. With Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha awaiting them, the one thing the Lions hooker must be able to do is find his jumper consistently. This is where Flannery may separate himself from the pack. If Rory Best was in the party he would be the early favourite because of his throwing but Flannery is excellent in this department. Rees’ traumatic experience in the Irish game may cost him his place in the test team while Mears can be expected to make an impact from the bench.

With Paul O’Connell captaining the side there are essentially four players fighting for one spot. Donncha O’Callaghan started all three tests in 2005, Simon Shaw knows what it takes to win a Lions tour having been there in 1997, and Nathan Hines has taken over from Scott Murray as Scotland’s premier lineout technician while Alun Wyn-Jones is probably the best young forward in Europe. O’Callaghan is abrasive but was anonymous for long periods of the Six Nations. He does not carry a lot of ball but does a lot of the work in the trenches. Unfortunately for the Lions that is not enough. Nathan Hines is a fine player and shone in a poor Scottish team yet he can go missing for long periods of games. Wyn-Jones is a superb middle of the line jumper but that’s something his captain will be doing while he has suffered as part of a struggling Ospreys team. Which leaves the old warrior Shaw. He may be 35 but he has shown the form this year that would have earned him a heck of a lot more than 52 caps for England if it wasn’t for a certain Martin Johnson. He has superb hands for a big man and is a strong ball carrier while he does the dirty work brilliantly. He should start alongside O’Connell.

The back row is probably the most competitive area of the squad. Martyn Williams is thought to be the favourite at openside but to take on the Springbok backrow of Schalk Burger, Danie Rossouw and Pierre Spies – none of whom are under 6’4” – significant bulk will be required. That is why David Wallace has to be considered. Apart from being a brilliant open field runner and a turnover machine for Ireland and Munster, Wallace is 6’2”. He was the outstanding back row for Ireland and deserves his chance. Similarly at blindside, the need for a big, no nonsense player opens the door for Joe Worsley. He is possibly the most anonymous England player ever that had more than 70 caps. He is one of the best tacklers in the game and that skill will be invaluable when trying to mark Pierre Spies. Although Stephen Ferris started every game for Ireland this year, Alan Quinlan is the perfect impact sub. At 34 he may not be able to last the full 80 minutes but will be more than capable of a frantic 30 minutes. He also has something of a wildness about his game that could prove invaluable against the Boks.

Number 8 could prove the most controversial position, and it will be more to do with the player left behind than the battle between Jamie Heaslip and Andy Powell. Ryan Jones should be the test 8. If he ends up on tour due to injury, he will force his way into the first XV. In the meantime, of the two out and out 8s that have been chosen, Jamie Heaslip is probably the more refined player while Andy Powell, although more of a straight ahead runner, can bring an intensity of purpose that Heaslip may struggle to match.

So there it is; a tour that has been looked forward to for four years is almost upon us. All the talk will be thrown out the window when the first game against a High Veld XV kicks off on May 30^th and the inevitable injuries start to pile up. In the meantime, all we can do is wait. Whatever the final result, it promises to be a fascinating tour and if the result of the series is still in doubt with ten minutes left in the final test at Ellis Park, well, we can but dream can’t we?.

Possible team for first test: 15) Lee Byrne, 14) Leigh Halfpenny, 13) Brian O’Driscoll, 12) Riki Flutey, 11) Shane Williams, 10) Ronan O’Gara, 9) Harry Ellis, 1) Gethin Jenkins, 2) Jerry Flannery, 3) Euan Murray, 4) Simon Shaw, 5) Paul O’Connell [c], 6) Joe Worsley, 7) David Wallace, 8) Jamie Heaslip Subs: 16) Lee Mears, 17) Andrew Sheridan, 18) Alun Wyn-Jones, 19) Alan Quinlan, 20) Tomás O’Leary, 21) Stephen Jones, 22) Tommy Bowe.